Center for Middle Eastern Strategic Studies. Bidinger S. The Relief Web. Syria Refugee Response Lebanon. Informal Settlements Location. Monthly programme update - June Syria crisis Syrian women in Turkey. Table S. References: 1. Helmsley that he has a phone call waiting for him. Helmsley discovers that his dad Harry is still alive. Harry tells his son that he, Tony whose arm is in a sling and some of the passengers and crew survived the mega-tsunami that struck the Genesis.
Captain Michaels states that they should have a visual on the ocean-liner shortly. Lily then announces that she sees an island.
The Arks arrive at the shipwrecked Genesis and the survivors on the beach. User reviews 1. Top review. A Silly and Corny Disaster Movie. When the geologist Dr. Adrian Helmsley and his team discover that the core of Earth is heating due to solar radiation, he advises the North American President about his findings. The American Govern collects money from the worldwide leaders to build arks to save them with necessary people to rebuild civilization. Meanwhile, the unsuccessful writer Jackson Curtis John Cusack discloses that the world is near to end and tries to save his son and his daughter from the tragic end.
In the 70's, there was a "fashion" of disaster movies, in general with dramatic stories but the special effects in those years were very simple. The physical absurd are usually OK for the action, but stupid attitudes is something that is annoying like, for example, the decision to open the gates with less than five minutes to be reached by the tsunami, or swimming wearing tie.
There are some posts in the Message Board listing the implausible or stupid scenes and attitudes. The Church in Brazil is suing Columbia Picture for using the image of the Christ Redeemer without previous authorization in an absolute absurd and nonsense; could the true reason be indeed an indirect reprisal for the scene with the destruction of the Vatican?
My vote is six. Title Brazil : "". FAQ 9. If they cannot read tea leaves, they can read the Breitbart comment section, as painful an experience as that can be:. Those same guys was cheering tRump believing in sooper dooper weapons that would make a glass parking place out of Russia…. He also spoke about the U.
What will happen then? Do you have a Plan B? Everyone has heard what President Putin has said and knows that our proposals are serious. We are putting them on paper now. Let us hope that is not the case but it could be. There is a picture of Lavrov preparing for the Stockholm meeting that seems to have created a stir in Russia. The arctic fox seems to have special significance. Does anyone know what it is? The explanation behind the meaning of that picture Arctic Fox was provided by Andrei Martyanov here:.
If has no effect on the U. Angloamerican offer to negotiate Israel support. With the future where Russians will get nothing new in Ukraine, but to stay in the Elvira-Aleksej status quo. What is the long-term goal of this Russian leadership. On the other side put pressure on China, which has begun to speak differently to the Biden administration. A visit to India should also be seen in this context.
Playing chess for big business interests, not to much of patriotism. The only way for war not to occur would be the US accept to become just one more country amongst others that is, to accept the US dollar to be just another currency like any other — which would be the end of the US hegemony. That would never happen. Nothing else will bind a future president. One point to consider is that behind American self-glorification lies a deep insecurity. The US, while greedy, self-serving and destructive is basically a schoolyard bully of small children.
Recall how terrified they were by the Iranian missile attack in response to Soleimani assassination? Americans are fearful people. Also, China and Russia will act in concert. Any misadventure escalating in the Ukraine might prompt China to settle matters with Taiwan. Or China might just benefit from continued patience and picking up the pieces. This too the Americans hopefully know. Like a bully, America needs the reassurance of a following of sycophants the Democracy Summit. I can see the usual sanctions on Russia, cut off from Swift, cancellation of NS2 and the usual mass PR campaign but forget nuclear war, European and US elites are not going to die for Ukraine.
I wrote something similar in reply to another poster. You can forget Ukraine, this cowardly Western elite is not going to die for their own country. They will weasel out and backdown while screaming through their media megaphones of having won.
Yes, he transferred in Spetsnaz to replace the troops already stationed there but stayed below the 25, total allowed by the agreement between Kiev and Moscow. The Ukies stood down and then left the Peninsula. Did Putin send help into Belarus when the color revolution threatened Lukashenko? Yes, he sent specialists to assist the Belarusian military and police and Intel services. Yes, he did send the Aerospace Forces and turned the war from disaster to victory.
The US will end the video phone call knowing that certain destruction awaits Ukraine, NATO and whoever is linked to the security threat launched against Russia. There will be no ambiguity from President Putin. We have his track record. It is as clear as could be. One more thing.
In all mentioned cases UKUS tricked somebody else to do dirty job and die. No difference this time. You put the pin into this bubble of anxiety. Blinken, himself, could only opine over the prospect of further economic sanctions. Nothing else. They hope that the Russians want the revenue from gas transfers so badly, that they will transfer through Ukraine given no other alternative. Somebody said that Russia plays chess, planing several moves ahead, US plays poker, bluffing all the time.
Or call …. Trump to give him a chance to become relevant by getting neocons on a short leash! Except for the endgame in which the opponent smashes the chess board. I was thinking of the endgame as corresponding to a future in which nothing extremely violent happens and present trends continue to their logical conclusions.
Nothing will happen. In as much as all arm chair generals would want. It is all theatre. Ukies know that there is no military solution. Most Ukie soldiers will quit if real Russian military gets going. Americans and Euros, will not get militarily involved. Thus, nothing happens. Merry Christmas and Happy New Year everyone! It is theatre. Hopefully nothing will happen. The danger is they may need to start a real little fire to create some smoke.
That fire might burn down the cinema. I hope Patrushev and Gerasimov can make it clear to Putin where the limits of Russian backing down ought to be and when push back is warranted. Let us see whether he lives up to his words. The western media is circulating various Russian troops numbers close to Ukraine borders ranging from 75k to k depending on the source ; I would say, if the goal is just the destruction of Ukrainian forces and no territorial claim, then this number is more than sufficent, likely no less than 40k troops needed.
To capture anything more, Russia will need a lot more than k soldiers. Knowing Putin to be rather cautious, I think, if push comes to shove, this is plan, and perhaps destroying Kiev political and military infrastructure essentially de-fanging the Ukrainians for a decade or more ; I would be surprised,however not entirely, if the order is to reach out all the way to Transdinester Republic and to the Danube over land.
Butch Cassidy, like Mr Putin, does everything possible to avoid a fight. But if there really has to be one…. I think the US will go to this meeting expecting russian concessions. They are sure that they are the strongest player and that if they escalate enough to put Russia in a corner in which there are only two options left, make concessions or go to war, Russia will make concessions. The US is hiding behind ukraine and what they will do in case of limited war is putting more sanctions.
A nuclear war is by definition a war nobody can win. Usually nukes are used to deter an ennemy but what do you do if the ennemy is completely crazy and ignores the MAD? In case of all out war Russia could destroy nato but that destruction would not compensate all the destruction Russia will suffer. I see the Russian government as truly rational.
In other words I don t see the Russian government refusing to make some kind of concessions if refusing to make concessions means a nuclear war. Agree with your sentiments and your broad drift, but there is a big problem that has been ignored in your forecast. The problem is simply this: Russia could be at a point where no further retreat is possible without falling down the cliff.
I mean what further concessions could Russia make? To give up Crimea? To abandon NS2 after billions spent? To promise not to keep its military beyond the outskirts of Moscow? I think the only concession Putin can make is to declare that America is a good country and Americans are fine fellows and that Russia wants to be friends with America.
IMHO Putin has already made a big concession by agreeing to have this meeting in the first place. This is the madman strategy of negotiation. It worked for the US in the past. But this is a short-term play. Ultimately the madman has to be neutralised not perpetually accommodated.
Russia have a lot of other means to make things work for them without going for the nuclear option. With respect, it is not about bragging. Nobody seems keen to explain the only thing that matters — why is the West continuing with its push on Moscow and even intensifying it, despite obvious Russian military prowess and despite huge risks to itself?
The Western predators are evil but not stupid and would never endanger their posteriors unless they thought they had a good chance of success. What makes them think that? Once this is understood, it becomes clear what Russia is facing and what it must do. The aggressor can continue making micro moves for a long time thus depriving Russia of a casus belli. Ten commandos here, a couple of batteries there.
When does one say enough is enough? This is a war of psychology, cognition and affect, heart and mind. The mongols thought they did have good chance of successes in taking on old Rus, so did the Swedish during the reign of Chapels XII, so did the French under Napoleon Bonaparte with the support of a few German state lets and more recently the Germans under the leadership of Adolf Hitler though that had chance to destroying this wild and ruthless entity populating the endless steps and endless Taiga forest… they all failed.
And we are taking about adversaries that at that point in history where all in top economic and military from. USA is far from being in top economic form as is hardly manufacturing on its soil any of the necessary supply for its army. Got import it form overseas.
What holds Putin back? Not sure.. Russia put missiles in Cuba to counter the US missiles in Turkey. After the Cuban missiles were removed, the US very quietly removed the missiles in Turkey. Is there a lesson here? Unfortunately, Russia has little to concede. The back is now touching the wall. At this point Russia should dictate in no uncertain terms. At this stage, the Russian government is not mincing words.
Lavrov is making it clear to all the players what they should expect. Lots of profits for the mic. The outcome is not in doubt if it does occur. Therefore, everything you see and hear today is just noise. Nothing will happen and you know why? Russia best weapon is financial not being the anti woke capital of the world as Orlov says : if there is a war between the two biggest nukes capable powers, when confirmed western financial system will collapse.
These people including neocons, good at warmongering and fake P R but nothing else , will never take such a risk with their big money, confort, families etc.. No need for super missiles, zirkon or whatever name. What would they do with a nuked country, in a nuclear winter for years even centuries? It is simply impossible. It effectively means decrease self-sufficiency in energy supplies, manufactured foods and goods, which makes EU countries even more dependent on Russia.
Just saying, Russian wheat, gas and oil, nickel and copper will just have increasing value, not only financially but as a weapon. These are weapons that can be used in cold war scenarios. The world is already experiencing inflation on this stuff, maybe the Russians would do well securing own supply first. Dear Saker, in hard times we need some light. This is the best and also funniest description of current politics in Europe and West by Mikhail Khazin.
I have changed my attitude toward nuclear war with Russia. I am in favor of it. We may get some radiation, but the cesspools that are the Democrat-controlled cities would be reduced to ashes. Nuclear war would turn the US solidly Republican for centuries! As a side benefit, the Deep State propaganda machine would be annihilated. Thank you, Russia. The above is obviously a snark.
But it illustrates why the elites who control the US will avoid nuclear war at all cost. Nuclear war would be like chemo therapy and they would be like the cancer. As Putin said , if there is to be a war , throw the first punch and since the enemy is the same , Russia ,China and Iran should join in at the same time. They believe that Russia will allow itself to be destroyed cooked gradually -but inevitably- rather than take military action.
So far, these hawks have it right. These hawks employ these tactics against Russia relentlessly. Russia is not going to win this war for the hearts and minds and for wallets of the peoples of the world against the West. Russia is not going to win a war of economic sanctions, embargoes, and natural resources while it is denied access to markets.
The hawks know this. It so happens that whatever is not controlled through International Banking and Finance BIS has been controlled through market channel management. The likely truth is: the Russian leadership cannot decide where they are, nor what the consequences for crossing them should be.
He has sat in the kettle for 7 years. The hopes for a Russian rescue have disappeared from the hearts and minds of nearly everyone in the LDNR. They should have received a level of assistance that at least matched what the Assad regime in Syria has received. Right now, The United States is adrift. It is no more capable of making a strong and decisive response to a Russian military action in the LDR or the Black Sea than it it was in Afghanistan.
NATO has turned up the heat in the pot called Ukraine. The frog is very uncomfortable and is dying slowly. Russia must get out of the pot and put the fire out. Your frog in the kettle of hot water analogy is bang on. That about nails the situation of Russia.
If the frog does not jump out of the kettle it will be game over for it. Since Putin famous speech in March in which he told Russia was military fit to challenge NATO the Empire gave him more than 50 month to reinforce his armament and military skills. In addition the weather is now to the advantage of the Septentrion armies. In the end, we all want peace, but having constant building up of hostile forces next to the border of any country is not precisely a peace situation.
However, I believe that we have at least a few more months. This is just a terrible time for war and extremely unnatural for an escalation. The only reason we have such an escalation is the pending US bankruptcy on their debt.
Armchair general here: The Empire needs to take control of Ukraine and Taiwan in order to mount land invasions of Russia and China. The strategic goal is dismember both Russia and China in order to prevent peer competitors from challenging US hegemony permanently. Truman doctrine, Reagan doctrine?
And now the window of opportunity is closing with Russia and China arming up and teaming up. Really speaking, the window has already closed, e. Thus the focus has shifted and the time table adjusted.
Parlous times and the US public is being prepped for kinetic warfare if it comes to that. What may appear to be paranoid hallucinations in the media is more likely disinformation as one piece in a calculated propaganda campaign to demonize Russia. Same with Taiwan and China, especially after the subversion of HK failed.
However, I suspect the first step is to to provoke Russia and China into justifying increasing economic warfare to isolate Russia and China from the world economy. The US is calibrating its media campaign to deny military intervention, which could be suicidal if it would go nuclear, in favor of a tight economic squeeze on Russia and China. Increasing sanctions to break Russia in the same manner of Iran, e. Same with China and Taiwan. The US in not yet crazy enough to contemplate a land war in Asia on two fronts, and probably on the an Iranian front, too.
Surely the generals have told the civilian leadership that. It would be a blunder to go kinetic before trying everything else — not that Western leaders are immune to blunders. The costs of excessive provocation are high now, even disregarding hypersonic attacks and MAD.
All that really understand is money. They had a military peer before with the USSR. They could let China take the heat yet provide support sell more resources and weaponry.
It feels insecure when it sees rivals emerging and the more its rivals rise, the more fearful it gets. The US is facing two — Iran is not in the equation, it really is a rank below — rival powers each more powerful than it but in different spheres — Russia in the military sphere and China economically. There are military aspects, for sure — Taiwan, SCS, Quad, etc — but the whole object is to disrupt Chinese economic activities.
Moreover, America has also tried to play China against Russia during this time period as well. That is why America is now resorting to more aggressive military, economic, and political threats against Russia and China.
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